Great data-driven post! Thank you!

What are the risks to the projection that 2nd generation sodium ion battery prices become as low as what you show?

Silly question, but why not use plain old salt (NaCl) to get the sodium? If we need to rely on soda ash, are deposits plentiful? (I know of a single US soda ash producer called Sisecam Wyoming.)

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Hey. Thanks for the question. In terms of the 2nd generation prices, the risk would be that lithium prices keep coming down to kill sodium-ion before it production reaches scale. But I think that's a low risk because the Chinese EV industry is fiercely competitive, so they have an incentive to bring down the costs down before their competitors do.

Soda ash is an input into sodium ion batteries. You can get soda ash either by mining or you can make it from salt water. The choice will depend on economics. 92% of global soda ash reserves is actually in the United States! (23 billion tons in the US, so it is really really plentiful)

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